The Bitcoin market is once again capturing analysts' attention with a frighteningly precise repetition of the 2022 scenario. The current price dynamics — from the June low to the July rebound — could very likely turn out to be a classic bull trap, followed by a sharp reversal downward and a final wave of capitulation.
The key signal is testing the 200-day moving average. Retail investors, seeing the rebound, are actively opening long positions, succumbing to euphoria. However, drawing parallels with 2022, it was precisely this pattern that preceded the decisive crash. Back then, after the June low, Bitcoin lost another approximately 28% in November-December. The fractal similarity is evident in everything: a false recovery, RSI divergence, and a subsequent sharp sell-off.
Strategy for the "Bearish" Scenario
Within this scenario, the current rebound is a trap for bulls. The price is expected to potentially rise into the $67,000–$70,000 zone, where the market will gather liquidity before a massive short. The critical level is $65,000. If it fails to consolidate above this level, the reversal could occur earlier, and the bearish scenario will activate immediately. In that case, the final crash with long liquidations and a true reversal should be expected only in the third or fourth quarter.
Arguments for a New Low
My own observations are confirmed by on-chain analytics data. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to a 20-month low of -0.35. This level was last recorded in December 2022, immediately after the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000. Historically, such SOPR values have accurately indicated the formation of local bottoms — a similar picture was observed in 2015 and 2019, followed by a reversal.
Additional confirmation comes from the fact that Bitcoin is trading only 16% above its realized price. Historically, at such proximity to this zone, the average return after six months was 41%, and after a year — 81%. However, given the current macroeconomic conditions and the repetition of the 2022 fractal, I am inclined to believe that we will first see another significant drop, which will shake out weak hands from the market, before sustainable growth begins. Investors should be extremely cautious and not give in to emotions from the current rebound.