The Bitcoin market is once again showing a frightening similarity to the dynamics of 2022. The current price structure—a June bottom, a subsequent bounce that retail traders perceive as a rescue signal, and growing euphoria—almost perfectly mirrors the scenario that preceded the last crash. In my view, we are witnessing a classic bull trap, possibly the largest in this cycle.
The key fractal similarity is evident in the behavior of indicators: after forming a local low in June, Bitcoin is testing the 200-day moving average. Retail traders are actively opening long positions, and the RSI is showing divergence. In 2022, this same phase was followed by a sharp decline—about 28% in November-December. If the fractal repeats, we can expect a final crash with long liquidations, after which a real reversal will only begin in the third or fourth quarter.
Arguments for a new cyclical bottom
On-chain metrics confirm this scenario. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to -0.35, the lowest level since December 2022, when Bitcoin's price fell below $16,000 after the FTX collapse. Historically, such values have precisely coincided with the formation of market bottoms in 2015 and 2019, followed by a reversal.
Additionally, Bitcoin is trading only 16% above its realized price. At such proximity to this zone, the average return after six months was 41%, and after a year, 81%. However, these historical data do not negate current risks: if the market fails to consolidate above the key level of $65,000, the likelihood of a deep correction increases significantly. In that case, a strategy of accumulating shorts after a bounce to $67,000–$70,000 seems quite justified.
My opinion: The market is currently in a high-risk zone. Repeating the 2022 scenario is not a dogma, but the coincidence of key signals is too precise. Investors should be prepared for high volatility and consider the current rise as a possible trap, not the start of a new rally. Profit-taking and hedging positions seem more prudent than aggressively building longs.