The Bitcoin market is once again under pressure, but the source of this pressure is not what we are used to. Traditionally, during correction periods, the main sellers are miners, locking in profits to cover operational expenses. However, the current situation demonstrates a fundamentally different distribution of forces.
Analysis of on-chain metrics indicates that the main pressure comes from short-term investors and speculators, while miners and long-term holders remain patient. The key indicator here is the net inflow of Bitcoin to Binance. The metric is in positive territory, meaning the volume of incoming transfers exceeds outgoing ones. Given that Binance is the largest liquidity hub, this signals a growing desire among some market participants to part with their coins.
Three Signals of One Picture
For an objective assessment of the situation, I analyzed three fundamental metrics together. First, the net inflow to Binance, which stands at +623 BTC. This is direct evidence of growing supply on the exchange. Second, the Puell Multiple indicator, which is at 0.62. This metric compares current miner income to the annual average. A value below 1 indicates that miners are not earning excess profits and, therefore, have no incentive for aggressive selling. Third, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio, which is at 0.16. This indicator is in the "hope" zone, suggesting no mass euphoria or profit-taking, but also not indicating capitulation.
The combination of these data paints a clear picture: miners are holding their positions despite reduced profitability. They are not selling at a loss. The pressure is being generated by other groups of investors, who are likely acting out of short-term caution or locking in minor profits.
What Does This Mean for the Price?
This distribution of forces makes the current correction less alarming than if miners had joined the process. The behavior of the latter indicates their belief in the asset's long-term potential. However, this does not negate the fact of pressure from speculators. The further price dynamics will directly depend on whether the inflow of coins to exchanges continues. If investors stop increasing balances on trading platforms, the pressure will subside, and the market will have a chance for recovery.
My professional opinion: The market is going through a phase of "shaking out" weak hands. The fact that miners have not joined the sell-off is a bullish signal for the medium term. Once speculative pressure dries up, we will see the formation of a local bottom. The key level to watch is the zone where the net inflow to exchanges stops. Investors should focus on on-chain data, not on panic sentiment in social media.