The Bitcoin market continues to face pressure. According to my analysis of on-chain data, active investors in the leading cryptocurrency are on average at a 20% loss. This alarming signal is confirmed by the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) metric, which has now settled in the depreciation zone.
The key indicator I use to assess the real state of affairs is the True Market Mean (TMM). Unlike the average price of all coins, TMM filters out "dead" and long-unmoved assets that no longer affect current market dynamics. It is a filter that shows the true cost basis only for liquid and active supply.
Currently, TMM is estimated at around $76,700. This level acts as strong resistance: it was here in May that many investors chose to lock in losses and exit positions rather than hold them further.
AVIV at 0.8: What Does It Mean?
The AVIV metric, which compares the current market value of active supply to its cost basis, is now fluctuating around the 0.8 mark. This is the depreciation zone, where the average loss for an active investor is 20%.
It is important to understand the context. In past bear cycles, AVIV dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. The current situation, while unpleasant, is twice as mild. This suggests we are still far from a classic "bottom" by historical standards.
Cyclicality Has Not Been Canceled
Despite the influx of institutional capital and the launch of ETFs, Bitcoin's basic cyclicality remains unchanged. The market still dictates its rules, and billions of dollars in liquidity cannot override them. This means the current correction may not be the last.
My expert opinion: The 20% loss level for the active group is a zone of increased risk, but not panic. History teaches us that real opportunities arise when fear peaks and AVIV falls significantly below current levels. As long as the indicator does not show extreme seller overheating, maintaining "humility before cycles" is the most sensible strategy. The market has not yet had its final say.