The market of the first cryptocurrency is once again showing a frightening synchronicity with the events of 2022. The current price dynamics of Bitcoin are reproducing with alarming accuracy the scenario that preceded the final capitulation two years ago. The June bottom, the subsequent bounce that retail investors hastily called a "rescue" — it has all happened before. Now BTC is again testing the 200-day moving average, and retail traders are massively opening long positions, succumbing to euphoria. However, in my analysis, this could turn out to be the largest "bull trap" of the current cycle.
The key argument is the fractal similarity of chart patterns. In 2022, after the June low, there was a false recovery, an RSI divergence, and finally a sharp crash that wiped out all accumulated longs. Back then, in November-December, Bitcoin lost about another 28% from the "bottom" price. If this fractal repeats, we can expect a final crash with mass liquidation of long positions, after which a real reversal will begin, likely in the third or fourth quarter.
On-chain signals confirm the bearish scenario
Chain data only strengthens this hypothesis. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to -0.35 — the lowest value in 20 months. The last time such a level was recorded was in December 2022, right after the FTX collapse, when BTC fell below $16,000. Historically, this indicator has accurately identified market bottoms before a reversal, as it did in 2015 and 2019.
An additional argument is that the current Bitcoin price is only 16% above the realized price. Historically, such proximity to this zone has provided an average return of 41% after six months and 81% after a year. However, given the current macroeconomic backdrop and structural similarity to 2022, I do not rule out that the market must first go through another painful phase of cleansing.
My expert opinion: Investors should be extremely cautious. The "buy the dip" strategy could now turn into a trap. It seems more reasonable to wait for a confirmed reversal after a possible final capitulation. The $65,000 level is critical: a breakout above it would open the way to $67,000–70,000, but failure to hold above it will trigger a new round of decline.