The key cryptocurrency has shown a confident recovery after a short-term drop to $61,391, triggered by news of a large-scale sale by the Strategy fund. At one point, the asset reached $64,597, and this rebound occurred ahead of the release of important Federal Reserve minutes. The market is clearly overplaying the initial pessimistic forecasts.
Options buyers and renewed capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are forming strong support for the price. The market situation has turned out to be significantly better than analysts predicted just a few days ago.
Options: Betting on a Bullish Scenario
The options market is currently dominated by call contracts. Open interest is distributed at a ratio of 60.15% versus 39.85% in favor of buyers. The maximum pain point for near-term contracts is at the $63,000 level. At the time of writing this review, the coin is trading at $63,102.
The upcoming expiration is a less significant event than it seems: relatively few open positions are concentrated here compared to the end of summer. This distribution of volumes creates conditions for sharp price movements following the publication of the official minutes from the US regulator.
The upcoming report will reflect the results of the June FOMC meeting. Recall that under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the agency kept the interest rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%. However, the leadership's rhetoric turned out to be quite hawkish: officials completely excluded any mention of an imminent policy easing. Half of the committee members only allow for one rate hike by the end of 2026.
ETFs: Institutional Interest Returns
Despite selling pressure, spot exchange-traded funds increased their holdings by $56.3 million, additionally purchasing 884.97 BTC. The positive trend resumed immediately after a ten-day series of capital outflows ended. Previously, investors had poured $222 million into these instruments in a single day.
Over the past two days, US spot funds are again recording net inflows. This dynamic indicates the return of institutional interest in digital gold.
The Sale That Triggered the Drop
Official representatives of Strategy confirmed the sale of 3,588 BTC for a total of $216 million. The funds are intended for paying dividends to holders of Digital Credit securities. Notably, the actual transaction volume exceeded early market rumors by approximately seven times. Despite the transaction, the company continues to hold a substantial 843,775 BTC, maintaining its status as the world's largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.
Further holding of the key $64,000 level now depends little on the activity of the Strategy fund. Market participants' attention has completely shifted to macroeconomic news from the US and statistics on ETF inflows.
My Expert Conclusion: The market is clearly signaling that the bearish momentum is exhausted. Options flows and renewed ETF buying are forming the foundation for a new rally. However, the key trigger will be the Fed minutes — if the rhetoric turns out softer than expected, we could see a confident breakout above the $65,000 level as early as this week.