The market is once again demonstrating its characteristic volatility. After a sharp decline to the $61,391 mark, triggered by news of a large-scale asset sale by Strategy fund, the leading cryptocurrency made a confident reversal. At the local peak, daily trading recorded a maximum of $64,597. The recovery is occurring amid anticipation of the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which traditionally fuels speculative sentiment.
Bullish Signal from the Derivatives Market
Analysis of the options market indicates buyer dominance. The open interest ratio is skewed in favor of call options: 60.15% versus 39.85% for put contracts. According to CoinGlass, the key max pain level for upcoming expirations is concentrated around $63,000. Notably, the current asset price ($63,102) almost coincides with this point, creating conditions for a sharp move after the Fed minutes are released. Open interest volumes for the nearest date are relatively small, which only amplifies the potential for a price impulse once the regulator's stance becomes clear.
Recall that at the June meeting, the Fed kept the rate at 3.50-3.75%, but the leadership's rhetoric was tougher than expected. Half of the committee members allow for only one rate hike by the end of 2026, indicating a prolonged period of "expensive" money. Nevertheless, the market seems to be pricing in a different trajectory.
Institutional Interest Returns
Alongside the options market, spot Bitcoin ETFs are also sending a positive signal. After a ten-day streak of capital outflows, funds recorded a net inflow of $56.3 million, equivalent to the acquisition of 884.97 BTC. Total assets under management for ETFs reached $72.89 billion, and the total amount of cryptocurrency redeemed since their launch in 2024 exceeded 637,780 BTC.
This dynamic indicates the return of institutional investors, who are likely viewing the current decline as an entry opportunity. It is important to note that inflows resumed immediately after the sell-off by Strategy concluded, confirming a shift in sentiment among major players.
Strategy Sell-Off: One-Time Measures
The actual sale of 3,588 BTC worth $216 million by Strategy turned out to be seven times larger than initial rumors suggested. However, these funds were directed towards paying dividends to holders of Digital Credit securities, rather than realizing losses. The company still holds 843,775 BTC, remaining the largest corporate holder of digital gold. Thus, selling pressure from this fund is likely temporary.
Expert Opinion: The market successfully tested the $61,000 support zone, and the rapid bounce confirms high demand at these levels. Further dynamics will be entirely determined by the macroeconomic backdrop and ETF inflow data. A breakout and consolidation above $64,500 will open the path to retesting June highs, but the Fed's hawkish stance remains a key risk for short-term growth.