The price of the precious metal slightly decreased after reaching a two-week high. The main reason is the strengthening of the US dollar. During trading, the spot price of gold fell by 0.58% to $4,141.26 per troy ounce.
By Tuesday morning, July 7, the dollar had gained 0.3%. This made gold more expensive for buyers from other countries, partially offsetting last week's gains. Market analysts note that this situation has become a factor of pressure on the precious metal.
However, the scale of the decline remained limited. Statistics showed a notable slowdown in employment growth in June, and wage data for previous periods were revised downward. Weak macroeconomic indicators significantly reduced the likelihood of an imminent tightening of monetary policy. According to calculations by the CME FedWatch Tool, investors estimate the chances of a rate cut in September at about 56%. Currently, exchange traders' attention is focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's closed meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
JPMorgan Softens Forecast but Maintains Positive Long-Term Outlook
Experts at investment bank JPMorgan still expect prices to rise to the $4,500 level in the final quarter of the year. The scenario remains relevant despite the recent revision of targets. Previously, the company's analysts assumed that exchange prices could test the $6,000 per ounce mark by the end of December. Thus, the target figure has decreased by about a quarter.
In July, JPMorgan lowered its own gold forecast for the fourth quarter by about 25%. As recently as June 9, the bank expected gold to rise to $6,000 by the end of the year. Bankers attributed the price decline to reduced demand from key industries. They warned that risks are tilted to the downside if inflation accelerates again in the summer.
At the same time, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term outlook for the metals market. Analysts expect gold to continue rising in price at least until 2027, as central banks continue active purchases.
The bank also forecasts that the average price of silver will be $60–65 per ounce. For platinum, gradual growth is expected, and for palladium, a moderate decline until 2027. The Fed minutes, to be released on Wednesday, could change rate expectations, and with them, the dynamics of gold.
Cryptalist Analyst: The current correction in gold is a temporary phenomenon amid the strengthening of the dollar. However, fundamental growth drivers, including central bank purchases and expectations of Fed policy easing, remain in place. The revision of JPMorgan's forecast from $6,000 to $4,500 is not a trend reversal, but a realistic assessment of short-term risks. The long-term bullish scenario for gold remains relevant.