The recovery of Bitcoin's price from $58,500 to above $63,500 over the past two weeks looks promising, but behind this rise lies a troubling structural imbalance. On-chain data analysis indicates that the current momentum is driven almost exclusively by offshore leverage, rather than genuine spot demand, especially from US investors.
A Divergence That Cannot Be Ignored
The key indicator here is the Coinbase premium dynamic—the difference between the price on this exchange and the global market. This metric traditionally reflects the appetite of institutional players and large holders from the US. Throughout all 14 days of the recovery, the Coinbase premium remained consistently negative, fluctuating in the range of -0.09 to -0.17. This is direct evidence of a lack of interest from American institutional capital.
At the same time, funding rates on Binance—a barometer of sentiment in the global, predominantly retail and offshore derivatives market—soared by 860% relative to their 90-day baseline. Such explosive growth indicates aggressive opening of long positions using borrowed funds. When offshore leverage rises simultaneously with a deeply negative Coinbase premium, it forms a classic pattern of a speculative rally.
The Network Remains on the Sidelines
Additional confirmation comes from the sharp decline in the NVT Golden Cross indicator—by 579% from the 90-day baseline. A drop in this metric amid rising prices means that the actual value of transactions on the network (real utility) is significantly lagging behind the growth in market capitalization. The price is rising faster than network usage is increasing. In other words, the Bitcoin network itself remains relatively quiet, while activity on derivatives exchanges is off the charts. This highlights the disconnect between the market price and the fundamental value of the asset.
What Does This Mean for the Market?
Such a configuration creates an extremely vulnerable environment. Historically, periods when price growth was driven solely by offshore leverage without support from the US spot market have preceded local corrections. The overloaded long positions that currently underpin the market become fuel for a sudden deleveraging event (long squeeze) at any significant downward move.
The key signal to confirm the sustainability of the rally will be the Coinbase premium moving into positive territory. Until this happens, the advantage remains with speculative capital rather than organic accumulation. The market remains fragile, and future dynamics will depend solely on whether real demand from the US returns.
Expert Opinion: The current situation reminds me of a "one-sided game." Without the participation of American institutions, which are the main driver of a sustainable bull market, any rally based solely on leverage risks ending as quickly as it began. Investors should be extremely cautious and not succumb to euphoria until we see a resumption of spot demand.