Artificial intelligence undoubtedly holds enormous potential for transforming the global economy, but investors and policymakers should be patient. As my calculations and data from leading analysts show, an immediate explosive growth in productivity is not to be expected. The real, measurable contribution of AI to macroeconomic indicators will only become apparent in a few years.
Jim Reid, Head of Macroeconomic and Thematic Research at Deutsche Bank, emphasizes that in his entire career, he has not seen a technology with such potential for boosting productivity as AI. However, the key nuance lies in the timeline for adoption: companies will need years to integrate these tools into their business processes and begin reaping maximum benefits. This is a classic example of the lagging effect of innovation.
At the current stage, we are witnessing significant market volatility, and Reid rightly warns of a possible correction in AI company stocks after their rapid growth. In his view, the long-term impact of the technology extends beyond market cycles, and the world faces a period of adaptation that may be accompanied by a reassessment of expectations.
An important conclusion I share: the development of large language models (LLMs) is unlikely to lead to mass unemployment. Historical precedents show that technological breakthroughs have not reduced overall employment levels but rather transformed their structure. AI will become a tool for enhancing labor efficiency, not a direct replacement for humans. At the same time, as the expert notes, productivity growth does not guarantee lower inflation—on the contrary, AI adoption may carry additional inflationary risks.
Investments Outpace Returns
Analysts at Deutsche Bank, in their World Outlook review, forecast that real productivity gains from AI will not materialize before 2026. Meanwhile, capital investment in AI infrastructure continues to break records. The consensus forecast for spending by the largest tech giants this year stands at $527 billion, significantly higher than expectations at the start of the earnings season.
However, the scale of investment still substantially outstrips the measurable economic impact. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, in 2026 these investments will add only about 0.3 percentage points to real GDP growth. This confirms that we are in a phase of "building the foundation" rather than "reaping the harvest."
My expert assessment: The market is overheated with expectations, and a correction is inevitable. However, strategically, AI will remain the main driver of the next decade. Investors should focus on companies with real-world implementation cases rather than speculative stories. The period 2026-2028 will be a watershed moment when AI begins to demonstrate a measurable contribution to the economy, and those who survive the current volatility will come out ahead.