The Russian digital currency bill No. 1194918-8 has once again faced delays. The expected autumn adoption of the document is not just a rumor, but the most likely scenario, driven by the scale of the amendments introduced and prolonged interagency approvals. Currently, key stakeholders—the Central Bank and the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov—are insisting on speeding up the process, but reality dictates different timelines.
Realistic forecast: second reading by July 27
Based on the latest signals from the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), where the fate of the law was discussed, the regulator aims to pass the document in the second reading by July 27. However, this is not the final point. Most likely, by this date we will see only an intermediate stage, not final approval. The full package of laws, including provisions on liability for violations, will be brought to the autumn session, and the process of their coordination promises to be challenging.
September launch: cautious optimism
The most realistic date for the law to come into force is early autumn, but no earlier than September 1. If the second reading does not take place by July 27, the September launch will be in question. The regulator's desire to adopt the document as soon as possible is strong, but it is possible that some provisions will be postponed to a later date. In the next couple of weeks, the picture will become clearer, and the market will receive a clear benchmark.
My analysis: The delay in the process is not so much a bureaucratic hurdle as a sign of the depth of elaboration. The Russian regulator seeks to avoid mistakes made by other jurisdictions and create a stable legal framework. However, for market participants, this means a continuation of the period of uncertainty. Investors and miners should prepare for clear rules of the game to emerge no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2024.