Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly one of the most powerful technologies of our time, capable of radically transforming the productivity of the global economy. However, as the latest analytical reports from leading financial institutions show, the real impact of its implementation will only become apparent after several years. Jim Reid, Head of Macroeconomic and Thematic Research at Deutsche Bank, emphasizes that in his entire career, he has never encountered a technology with such potential for productivity growth as AI. Nevertheless, companies will need time to integrate it into their business processes and begin to see tangible returns.
Reid rightly notes that after the rapid surge in AI company stocks, a correction is inevitable. But the long-term impact of the technology extends far beyond market cycles. The world is entering a period of adaptation that will be accompanied by high volatility and a reassessment of expectations. Interestingly, the expert dispels fears about mass job losses. In his view, large language models (LLMs) will become not a replacement, but a powerful tool for enhancing labor efficiency. History shows that previous technological breakthroughs did not lead to sustained reductions in employment.
Investment vs. Return: The Gap Persists
Reid's position fully aligns with the conclusions of his colleagues at Deutsche Bank. In their annual World Outlook review, the bank's analysts emphasize that the current pace of AI development is highly likely to lead to productivity growth, but tangible results will only become noticeable after 2026. Meanwhile, the volume of capital investment in AI infrastructure continues to break records. The consensus forecast for spending by the largest technology giants this year stands at $527 billion — significantly higher than the previously expected $465 billion.
However, the scale of investment is still outpacing the measurable economic impact. Goldman Sachs estimates that in 2026, AI spending will add only 0.3 percentage points to real GDP growth and just 0.1 percentage points to measurable growth. This confirms that we are in an "investment bubble" phase, where capital flows into infrastructure rather than the final product. Similar concerns were recently voiced by experts at the Bank for International Settlements, who warned of risks to the financial system.
My analysis: The market is clearly overheated with expectations. For now, the AI boom resembles a gold rush, where sellers of shovels and pickaxes (chip manufacturers and cloud service providers) earn more than the gold prospectors themselves (startups and end users). Investors should prepare for a correction, but the long-term trend remains bullish — once adaptation is complete, we will see a true explosion in productivity.