The global race for quantum supremacy is entering a new phase, and in my firm belief, many nations risk missing the point. According to a recent analytical report by IBM's Center for Government Research, the strategies of several countries suffer from "tunnel vision," focusing exclusively on quantum computing. This is a critical mistake that could lead to serious lag in related, equally important areas.
The report's authors emphasize that states need to develop quantum technologies comprehensively. This includes not only computers but also quantum communications for secure data transmission, high-precision sensors for medicine and geological exploration, as well as post-quantum cryptography. The latter, in my view, is the most pressing issue right now. The "harvest now, decrypt later" scenario is not a theory but a real threat: attackers can already intercept encrypted data today to decrypt it as soon as a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges.
The total volume of global investments in quantum technologies in 2024 exceeded $40 billion. However, as the report rightly notes, simply recognizing the importance is not enough—strategic actions are required. The nearest practical track for states is not waiting for a universal quantum computer, but immediately preparing infrastructure for post-quantum cryptography. Inventorying systems, updating algorithms, and migrating digital signatures are no longer an option but a necessity.
Comparative Analysis of Race Leaders
The report provides a detailed analysis of the strategies of five key players: the United States, China, the European Union, India, and Australia. Each demonstrates its own approach with unique strengths and weaknesses.
The United States has a powerful research base and attracts huge private investments—venture capital funding for quantum startups alone exceeded $1.5 billion in 2024. An example is the $2 billion allocated by the U.S. Department of Commerce to local companies, half of which will go to IBM for building supercomputers.
China follows a centralized model with government investments estimated at around $15.3 billion. China's strategy emphasizes quantum communications and centralized planning. The launch of a quantum computing development zone in Shanghai with subsidies of up to $14.7 million for fundamental research confirms their serious intentions.
The European Union, with public funding of about $10 billion, faces the challenge of fragmented research across bloc countries, slowing commercialization. Launching digital skills academies for quantum technologies is a correct step to overcome the talent shortage.
India and Australia are in the stage of building their fundamental base, facing difficulties in commercialization and talent retention. The construction of the PsiQuantum quantum center in Australia is a positive but still isolated signal.
My expert conclusion: While the United States maintains a slight advantage, the gap with China is rapidly narrowing. The decisive factor in this race will not be just the volume of investments, but the state's ability to build a holistic ecosystem that unites fundamental science, the commercial sector, and talent training. Those who limit themselves to only one direction risk becoming laggards when the quantum revolution truly begins.