The Russian crypto market is frozen in anticipation: bill No. 1194918-8 on digital currency is being postponed again. The reason lies not only in an avalanche of amendments but also in protracted coordination between government agencies. Professionals have grown accustomed to delays, but the situation is now taking on concrete shape.
Key dates and regulator positions
At the recent SPIEF session, the need to accelerate the adoption of the law was actively discussed. The Central Bank and the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, insist that the final version of the document be ready by July 27. However, in my assessment, by that date we will likely be talking about the second reading rather than final approval.
Special attention should be paid to the package of laws introducing liability for violations. Their adoption is expected during the fall session, and the coordination process will be challenging. Lawmakers are trying to balance strict regulation with stimulating innovation, which inevitably leads to compromises.
Realistic forecast for enactment
I view optimistic statements about the law coming into force on September 1 with caution. Even if the second reading passes by July 27, technical procedures and signing will take time. The most likely scenario is that the law will take effect no earlier than fall, with some provisions possibly delayed to a later date.
Key point: if the document is not adopted in the second reading by July 27, then September 1 as a start date becomes virtually unattainable. The regulator shows high motivation, but the bureaucratic machine has its own inertial laws.
Analytical conclusion: The market should prepare for full-fledged cryptocurrency regulation in Russia to take effect no earlier than October-November 2023. Moreover, we will see the first practical consequences only after the accompanying laws on liability come into force. I recommend investors and market participants focus on fall 2023 as a realistic horizon, and consider any earlier dates as a positive but unlikely scenario.