The market for the first cryptocurrency is showing classic signs of maturity, despite the current drawdown of 54% from the October high. My analysis confirms that the target of $150,000 by the end of the year remains quite realistic, and fundamental factors continue to favor the bulls.
The current correction has lasted about three quarters, which is significantly shorter than historical bear phases, which typically stretched over 12–15 months with declines of 75–90%. This suggests the market is becoming more resilient, although a complete end to the downturn has not yet been confirmed. However, the key growth drivers remain in place.
Capital Flows and Corporate Demand
Since the start of the year, the total inflow into bitcoin through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs has been approximately $10 billion. Despite an outflow from ETFs of $5.5 billion, this appears insignificant against the backdrop of institutional assets totaling $74 billion. The primary source of demand is Strategy, which has acquired roughly 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its liquidity is sufficient to cover payments for more than 17 months.
Furthermore, Strategy's purchases offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital into AI infrastructure and data centers. This creates a stable balance in the market.
Regulatory and Structural Factors
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation. Key events include the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed before the end of 2026 is estimated at around 50%, which could be a powerful catalyst.
Historical Bottom Signals
Data from K33 shows that more than half of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50% over the past month. Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the cycles of 2018 and 2022, the low was reached 23 and 13 days, respectively, after the signal appeared. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, but the current context is different.
Bitcoin has also returned to its 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). Long-term holders control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, indicating sustained long-term demand.
My conclusion: the current correction is not the end of the cycle, but an opportunity for accumulation. The $60,000 area already looks attractive for long-term investors, and judging by historical patterns, the bottom could be formed in the coming weeks. The $150,000 target remains achievable if regulatory and corporate factors continue to work in bitcoin's favor.