The market is frozen in anticipation: the fate of digital currency bill No. 1194918-8, which is intended to legalize and regulate the crypto sphere in Russia, is once again in question. According to my data, the document is being pushed back to autumn — and there are several reasons for this. The key issue is the avalanche of amendments and prolonged interagency approvals. It is clear that there will be no simple or quick solution here.
At the recent session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the need to speed up the process was actively discussed. However, based on the latest signals from the Central Bank and the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, the final version of the law is unlikely to appear before July 27. And even then, it is most likely only about the second reading, not final approval. This is an important nuance that many overlook.
When to expect the actual launch?
I assess optimistic statements that the law will come into force as early as September 1 with extreme caution. If the document does not pass the second reading by the end of July, the September deadline is practically unattainable. The regulator is certainly interested in a speedy adoption, but technical and legal complexities may lead to some provisions being postponed to the autumn session.
Special attention should be paid to the package of laws introducing liability for violations of the new regulation. Their adoption is expected to take place precisely in the autumn. This process will be challenging and will require careful coordination. Ultimately, the real date for the law to come into force is no earlier than September 1, and the full picture will become clear in the next couple of weeks.
My analysis: The market should prepare for a phased implementation of regulation. The first step is a framework law that will provide basic definitions and legalize mining and circulation. The second is tightening control and introducing sanctions. The delay negatively affects the investment climate, but rushing such a complex issue could lead to even greater problems. The key date to watch is July 27. If we do not see progress by then, the autumn launch will become the only realistic scenario.