The digital asset market is going through a rough patch, but the fundamental growth drivers remain in place. Contrary to the panic among retail investors, professional analysts maintain confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. The key target of $150,000 by the end of the year is not only not being canceled but is also supported by a number of structural factors that I have analyzed in detail.
The current correction, which has been ongoing for three quarters, indeed looks "mild" compared to historical bear phases. In the past, declines from local highs reached 75–90% and stretched over 12–15 months. The current drawdown of 54% from the October peak is more a sign of market maturity than its collapse. However, it is still too early to rush to conclusions about the complete end of the downturn: the market may still have surprises in store.
What is keeping Bitcoin afloat
The fundamental picture remains extremely positive. Since the start of the year, total capital inflows through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. And this is despite the fact that investors have withdrawn $5.5 billion from the ETFs themselves. Such an outflow is a drop in the ocean compared to assets worth $74 billion. The main driver of demand is Strategy, which has purchased about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt load is only 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its liquidity is sufficient for 17 months of servicing obligations. These are not just purchases—this is strategic accumulation that offsets sales by public miners who are pivoting to AI infrastructure.
The regulatory environment is also playing into the market's hands. The advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion—all of this creates a favorable backdrop. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at around 50%, which could become a powerful catalyst.
Historical signal: is the bottom near?
Analysts at K33 point to a rare signal: more than 50% of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss. The last time this situation occurred was in the late stages of the bear phases of 2018 and 2022, after which the bottom formed within 13–23 days. The only exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final low. Additional confirmation comes from Bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average—a level that has historically accompanied all market bottoms. The RSI index has meanwhile fallen to values from November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
However, it is important to understand that the current cycle may differ. The massive outflow from exchange-traded crypto products—85,600 BTC over four weeks—is unprecedented. But long-term holders, who control a record 79% of the circulating supply, continue to accumulate. This indicates the persistence of structural demand.
My conclusion: the $60,000 area could indeed become the bottom of the current cycle. But $150,000 is not a fantasy—it is the result of institutional accumulation, regulatory shifts, and historical patterns. The market is simply waiting for its moment.