The market is eagerly awaiting the final chord in the long saga of adopting the digital currency law No. 1194918-8. The latest signals indicate that the document's review is being postponed again, this time to the fall. The reason is an avalanche-like increase in the number of amendments and protracted interdepartmental approvals. As a professional analyst, I see here not just a bureaucratic delay, but a reflection of deep disagreements among key players—the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, and law enforcement agencies.
What is being said about the timeline
At a recent session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the need to speed up the process as much as possible was discussed. However, judging by statements from the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, and representatives of the Central Bank, the final version is unlikely to be adopted before July 27. A more realistic scenario is a second reading by this date, but not final approval. This means that the key package of laws introducing liability for violations will be considered during the fall session. And here we face the most difficult stage—coordinating norms that will satisfy both the regulator and law enforcement.
When the law will come into effect
My analysis shows that optimistic forecasts about the law coming into effect on September 1 look extremely doubtful. Even if the document is passed in the second reading before July 27, it is technically almost impossible to launch it by the beginning of fall. With a high degree of probability, we will see it come into effect no earlier than September, and possibly later. The real picture will become clear in the next couple of weeks, when it becomes known whether deputies will manage to hold the vote before the summer break. If not, we will have to wait for full regulation at least until October.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The market needs to prepare for the fact that Russian crypto regulation will be introduced in stages, not as a single block. Experimental regimes will be launched first, while strict liability norms will be postponed. This will create a temporary legal vacuum that unscrupulous participants may exploit. Investors should exercise maximum caution until clear and workable rules of the game emerge.