Despite the prolonged correction that has already lasted about three quarters, Bernstein experts remain committed to their "ambitious" forecast. The main target by the end of this year is $150,000. They characterize the current 54% decline from the October peak as "mild" by historical standards. For comparison: in previous bear cycles, drawdowns from local highs reached 75–90%, and the decline phases themselves stretched over 12–15 months. In my opinion, this dynamic indeed points to increased market maturity, but the final bottom has not yet been confirmed.
Fundamental Growth Factors
Bernstein highlights several key drivers that, in their view, will ensure bitcoin's recovery. First and foremost, this is capital flows. Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Meanwhile, $5.5 billion was withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, but against the backdrop of institutional assets totaling $74 billion, this outflow is considered limited. The main net inflow was provided precisely by corporate buyers.
Strategy remains the primary demand driver. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Strategy's debt load is about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. At the same time, the company retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance these obligations. It is important to note that Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, who reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation. Bernstein points to the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at about 50%.
Historical Signal and K33's Position
K33 specialists draw similar conclusions. According to their data, more than half of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to over 50% in a month. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017, after 31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, and the price fell another 46%.
Additional confirmation is bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). At the same time, K33 emphasizes that the current cycle may differ due to a massive capital outflow from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC — the largest figure in history.
Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share. K33 believes that the $60,000 area could serve as a benchmark for long-term accumulation and may claim to be the bottom of the current cycle.
My expert opinion: Bernstein's $150,000 forecast looks ambitious but not unfounded, given institutional demand and historical patterns. However, the key risks remain regulatory uncertainty and the possibility of a deeper correction if macroeconomic conditions worsen. The current consolidation near $60,000 could be an entry point for long-term investors, but I would recommend caution until clear trend reversal signals emerge.