The US semiconductor stock market is entering a high-risk zone. Macroeconomic correlation analysis indicates that the SOX index, which reflects the performance of chipmakers, has been moving in close tandem with silver mining stocks for nearly a year. Meanwhile, silver company shares have already peaked and reversed downward — their decline began several months earlier.
If this correlation persists, the semiconductor sector faces a prolonged correction. The most vulnerable segment appears to be memory manufacturers — the most "commodity-like" part of the industry, where demand cyclicality is particularly acute.
Why chips are losing support
The fundamental reason for the sector's weakening lies in the structure of demand. The semiconductor industry is critically dependent on capital expenditures by hyperscalers — the largest data center operators. Meta's recent announcement about plans to sell excess computing capacity to third-party clients has become a warning signal. In effect, the company admitted it overestimated the need for chips for its own AI projects and is now forced to monetize unused resources.
This directly indicates that the market is entering a phase of "reality check on demand." Massive investments in AI infrastructure are beginning to be questioned, and chip suppliers are the first to be hit.
What this means for cryptocurrencies
For crypto investors, this dynamic has a dual significance. Over the past year, capital has been actively flowing from digital assets into AI stocks, putting pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins. Now, if the hype around AI begins to cool, some funds could theoretically return to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
However, there is also a reverse scenario: a broad correction in the technology sector could drag Bitcoin down with it, as it has recently shown a high correlation with the stock market. Thus, the further trajectory of semiconductors becomes a key indicator for the entire digital asset market.
Expert opinion: The semiconductor market is currently at a bifurcation point. If the decline in silver company shares indeed leads the SOX dynamics by 4 months, chipmakers could face a significant drawdown in the coming weeks. For crypto investors, this means the period of a "safe haven" in the AI boom is ending, and volatility could return to both markets with renewed force.