The adoption of the digital currency bill No. 1194918-8 is being postponed again. The main reason is the significant number of amendments and protracted interagency approvals. Initially optimistic forecasts about the speedy approval of the document are giving way to more realistic assessments, and the key question now is not "whether the law will pass," but "when exactly."
At a recent session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the need to accelerate the process as much as possible was actively discussed. The target date mentioned was July 27: the second reading of the bill is planned by this deadline. However, it is important to understand that this is not the final approval, but merely another stage of parliamentary procedures. The second reading will be followed by a third, and then approval by the Federation Council and the president's signature.
When the law will take effect: from optimism to reality
The most likely scenario is the law coming into force in the fall. Talk of September 1 as the launch date seems more like cautious optimism. If the second reading does not take place before July 27, a September start becomes practically impossible. The regulator is indeed interested in the speedy adoption of the document, but bureaucratic mechanisms and the need to coordinate all details with the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, and other agencies are making adjustments.
Separately, it is worth highlighting the package of accompanying laws introducing liability for violations of the new regulation. Their adoption is expected during the fall session, and this process will be no less complex. Thus, a full-fledged legal framework for the circulation of digital currencies in Russia will be formed no earlier than September-October 2024.
My analysis: The market has already grown accustomed to delays in Russian crypto regulation. The postponement to the fall is not a failure, but rather a sign that lawmakers are striving to create the most thoroughly developed mechanism, not a "raw" law. For long-term investors and miners, this is a signal to prepare for new rules of the game, but not to expect them before the fourth quarter.