Despite the current correction, which has already lasted about three quarters, the target of $150,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2026 remains in effect. My calculations, based on an analysis of market cycles and fundamental factors, show that the current 54% drop from the October high is not a catastrophe, but rather a "soft" correction typical of a mature market. For comparison, in previous bear phases, declines reached 75–90% and lasted 12–15 months.
The key driver for recovery is capital flows, which remain positive. Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow into bitcoin through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs has been about $10 billion. Yes, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from ETFs, but against $74 billion in assets under management, this is a drop in the ocean. The main demand is provided by Strategy, which has purchased 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt load is only 13% of its portfolio value, and liquidity is sufficient for 17 months of interest and dividend payments. Moreover, Strategy could sell up to $1.25 billion worth of bitcoin to cover obligations, but for now, the company's purchases more than compensate for the pressure from public miners, who are pivoting to AI infrastructure.
Regulatory Catalysts and Historical Signals
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation. This includes the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. I estimate the probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of the year at roughly 50%.
Equally important are data from K33, which point to a historical signal: over 50% of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss, and more than 10 million BTC have moved at prices above current levels. In previous cycles (2018, 2022, 2017), similar values preceded the formation of a bottom within 13–31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the low, and the price fell another 46%. Additionally, bitcoin has returned to the 200-week moving average, and the fear and greed index has dropped to 8 ("extreme fear").
However, the current cycle may differ: the massive outflow from crypto funds over four weeks (85,600 BTC) is the largest in history. But long-term holders, controlling a record 79% of the circulating supply, continue to accumulate coins. The $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation and potentially act as the bottom.
My expert opinion: The combination of institutional demand, regulatory shifts, and historical patterns makes the $150,000 target realistic, but only if the current correction ends in the coming weeks. If capital outflows intensify, we could see a prolonged bottom, as in 2014.