Shares of leading US semiconductor companies are entering a high-risk zone. My analysis shows that the SOX index has demonstrated a stable correlation with silver mining stocks for nearly a year, with the latter leading by approximately four months. This synchronicity is a warning signal for the technology sector.
Both asset groups previously showed parabolic growth, fueled by hype around basic commodities — chips and precious metals. However, silver mining stocks have already peaked and reversed downward earlier this year. If the historical pattern holds, the semiconductor sector faces a similar correction.
Why Semiconductors Face a Downturn
The most vulnerable segment, in my assessment, will be memory manufacturers — the most "commodity-like" part of the industry, which first responds to changes in demand. The fundamental cause of instability lies in the excessive dependence of semiconductor companies on capital expenditures from hyperscalers — the largest data center operators.
The situation was exacerbated by a recent statement from Meta (recognized as an extremist organization in Russia). The company announced plans to sell excess data center computing capacity to third-party clients. This refers to resources originally built for its own AI needs. This is a direct signal that Meta may have overestimated demand for chips and will reduce their purchases in the future.
What This Means for the Market and Cryptocurrencies
The AI infrastructure deal is entering a "reality check on demand" phase. The market is beginning to question the justification for massive investments in computing power. Over the past year, capital has actively flowed from cryptocurrencies to AI-related stocks, putting pressure on Bitcoin during a loss-making first half.
My forecast: if the bet on AI indeed begins to cool, part of the capital could theoretically return to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, the opposite scenario cannot be ruled out — a broad correction in the technology sector could drag down Bitcoin, which has recently moved in tandem with the stock market.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of the semiconductor index SOX. Its potential decline would not just be an industry event but a powerful macroeconomic signal that could redefine liquidity flows between traditional markets and the crypto sphere. The current situation reminds me of the 2021 period, when the cooling of "meme" stocks triggered a temporary but sharp outflow of capital from Bitcoin.