Despite the current drawdown, Bernstein analysts maintain an "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin, calling the $150,000 mark by the end of the year the main target. They characterize the 54% decline from the October high as "mild" — historically, bear phases lasted 12–15 months and led to declines of 75–90%.
According to experts, a correction lasting about three quarters indicates the maturity of the crypto market. However, the exact point of the downturn's completion has not yet been determined.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Growth
Bernstein highlights several key drivers. Since the beginning of the year, the total capital inflow through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Meanwhile, $5.5 billion was withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, but given assets totaling $74 billion, this outflow is considered limited. Corporate buyers provided the positive net inflow.
Strategy remains the main source of demand. Since January, the company has acquired about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The debt load is about 13% of the portfolio's value, and liquidity is sufficient to service payments for more than 17 months. Strategy may also sell up to $1.25 billion worth of bitcoins to finance dividends and share buybacks.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, some of which reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Bottom Signal
K33 specialists also point to signs of a possible bottom. Currently, more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to over 50%. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases: in 2018 and 2022, the bottom was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal, respectively, and in 2017, after 31 days.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average, as well as the RSI dropping to its lowest since November 2018 and the fear and greed index falling to 8 ("extreme fear").
However, K33 warns that the current cycle may differ: over four weeks, investors withdrew a record 85,600 BTC from exchange-traded crypto products. Despite this, long-term holders control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, indicating sustained demand.
According to K33, the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation and potentially act as the bottom of the current cycle.
My analysis: The combination of fundamental factors — corporate demand, regulatory shifts, and historical signals — creates a compelling basis for Bernstein's forecast. However, investors should consider that the current cycle is marked by unprecedented outflows from ETFs, which could slow the recovery. Nevertheless, the long-term picture remains bullish, and $150,000 by the end of the year is not just an ambitious target but a quite achievable scenario, provided the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.