Despite the prolonged correction, Bernstein's analytical department maintains its "ambitious" forecast for the first cryptocurrency. The key target by the end of this year is $150,000 per coin. The current 54% decline from the October high is characterized as "mild" compared to historical bear phases, which lasted 12-15 months and were accompanied by crashes of 75-90%. This indicates increased market maturity, although it is still premature to definitively state that the downturn is over.
Fundamental Factors: Capital and Regulation
The optimistic scenario is underpinned by a steady inflow of capital. Since the beginning of 2026, the total volume of funds directed into bitcoin through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to approximately $10 billion. Notably, outflows from exchange-traded funds ($5.5 billion) have been fully offset by corporate purchases. The absolute leader remains Strategy, which has increased its reserves by 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing them to 847,363 BTC. Strategy's debt load is only 13% of its portfolio's value, and its liquidity is sufficient to cover obligations for more than 17 months. Moreover, the company has an option to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance dividends and share buybacks.
Strategy's activity in 2026 has also offset sales by public miners, some of whom have redirected capital to infrastructure for AI and data centers. Additional catalysts could include changes in U.S. regulation, such as the advancement of the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the real-world assets (RWA) market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of the year is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
Analysts at K33 also see signs of a bottom forming. According to their data, more than half of all bitcoin supply (over 10 million BTC) is currently at a loss—the metric has risen from 30% to 50% over the past month. Historically, such levels have only been observed in the final stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks (13 to 31 days in the cycles of 2018, 2022, and 2017). The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the low, and the price fell an additional 46%.
Additional signals include bitcoin returning to its 200-week moving average (a level seen at all previous market bottoms) and the fear and greed index dropping to 8 ("extreme fear"). Meanwhile, the RSI has fallen to its lowest level since November 2018. Despite record outflows from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, controlling about 79% of the circulating supply—an all-time high, indicating sustained long-term demand. K33 believes that the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for accumulation and potentially act as the bottom.
My comment: The combination of extreme fear, a high proportion of supply at a loss, and continued accumulation by institutions is a classic recipe for a reversal. However, given the unprecedented outflows from ETFs and regulatory uncertainty, the nature of the current cycle may differ from previous ones. $150,000 is an ambitious target, but achieving it would require a powerful catalyst, which is not yet visible.