Despite the prolonged correction, Bernstein analysts maintain their "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin, setting a target of $150,000 by the end of the year. They characterize the current 54% decline from the October high as "mild" compared to historical bearish phases that lasted 12-15 months and were accompanied by crashes of 75-90%.
The current correction has lasted about three quarters, which, according to experts, indicates the increased maturity of the crypto market. However, it remains unclear whether the downturn has fully ended.
Fundamental Support Factors
Bernstein highlights several key factors supporting the bullish forecast. First and foremost, capital flows. Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Meanwhile, $5.5 billion was withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, but against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets, such an outflow is considered limited.
The main driver of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Strategy's debt burden is about 13% of its bitcoin portfolio's value, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. The company also retains the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of bitcoin to finance its obligations.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, some of which redirected capital into AI infrastructure and data centers.
Regulatory Changes and Historical Signals
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation, including the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at about 50%.
Analysts at K33 draw similar conclusions, noting that more than half of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss — a historical signal that preceded the formation of a bottom. In previous cycles, the low was reached 13-31 days after this signal appeared. Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average and an extreme level of fear in the market (fear and greed index at 8).
Despite the massive capital outflow from exchange-traded crypto products (85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, controlling a record 79% of the circulating supply.
My analysis: The current situation resembles a classic accumulation phase, where institutional players and long-term holders use retail investor panic to increase their positions. The target of $150,000 by the end of the year looks ambitious but not impossible, given the fundamental drivers and historical patterns. However, the macroeconomic situation and regulatory clarity will remain key factors.