Despite a prolonged correction lasting about three quarters, experts maintain an "ambitious" target for bitcoin at $150,000 by the end of the year. They characterize the 54% decline from the October peak as "mild" by historical standards. For comparison, in previous bearish phases, drawdowns from local highs reached 75–90%, and the downturns themselves stretched over 12–15 months. According to analysts, this dynamic indicates the growing maturity of the crypto market, although full confidence in the end of the downtrend is still lacking.
Fundamental factors remain on the side of the "bulls." Since the beginning of the year, the total capital inflow through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Meanwhile, the outflow from exchange-traded funds of $5.5 billion appears insignificant against the backdrop of assets under management of $74 billion. Strategy is the key driver of demand: since January, the company has purchased approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is estimated at only 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. Additionally, Strategy retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance these obligations.
Strategy's purchases offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from regulatory shifts in the U.S.: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at about 50%.
Technical indicators are also signaling a potential reversal. According to K33, more than 50% of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss—a metric that historically preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after this signal appeared, respectively. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, and the price fell an additional 46%.
Bitcoin has returned to the 200-week moving average—a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI index has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). Despite a record outflow from exchange products (85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, controlling about 79% of the circulating supply—an all-time high. K33 believes that the $60,000 area could already serve as a benchmark for long-term accumulation and may claim to be the bottom of the current cycle.
My comment: The combination of fundamental factors—institutional demand, regulatory progress, and technical oversold signals—creates a compelling argument that the current correction is more of an accumulation phase than the start of a new bearish era. However, the key risk remains the macroeconomic backdrop, which could prolong the recovery longer than optimistic scenarios suggest.