Despite pessimistic market sentiment, I remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term potential. My analysis confirms that the target of $150,000 by the end of the year remains quite achievable. The current 54% drawdown from the October high is not a catastrophe, but rather a "soft" correction typical of a maturing market.
The current correction has been ongoing for about three quarters. For comparison, historically, major bear phases have stretched over 12-15 months, with declines from local peaks reaching 75-90%. The current dynamics indicate increased resilience of the crypto market, although I do not rule out that the downturn may not yet be fully complete.
Fundamental Factors: Capital Flows and Institutional Strategy
Fundamental factors remain the key driver for Bitcoin's growth. Since the beginning of the year, the total capital inflow through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Yes, $5.5 billion was withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, but against the backdrop of assets totaling $74 billion, I consider this outflow limited. The positive net inflow was provided precisely by corporate buyers.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) remains the primary source of demand. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only about 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. This is a powerful signal of institutional confidence.
Furthermore, Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, who reallocated capital into AI infrastructure. Additional market support could come from changes in US regulation: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. I estimate the probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 at roughly 50%.
Historical Signal: Accumulation Amidst Fear
Similar conclusions are confirmed by other metrics. Currently, more than half of Bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to over 50% in a month. Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the bottom was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017, after 31 days.
Additional confirmation comes from Bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the Fear and Greed Index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
Despite the massive outflow from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks — the largest in history), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins. They now control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, which I view as a sign of sustained long-term demand. The $60,000 area may already serve as a benchmark for accumulation and could claim to be the bottom of the current cycle.
My expert opinion: The current correction is not the end of the cycle, but an opportunity for a strategic entry. Institutional flows and historical patterns indicate that $150,000 is not a fantasy, but a very real target, especially against the backdrop of growing adoption and regulatory clarity.