Despite a prolonged correction that has already lasted about three quarters, Bernstein analysts maintain an "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin, setting a primary year-end target of $150,000. They characterize the 54% decline from the October high as "mild" by historical standards.
For context: in the past, major bear phases lasted from 12 to 15 months, with drawdowns from local peaks reaching 75–90%. According to experts, the current dynamics indicate increased maturity of the crypto market, although it is still premature to definitively state that the downturn is over.
Fundamental Pillars of Growth
The optimistic scenario is based on a number of fundamental factors. First and foremost, this is capital flows. Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow into bitcoin through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. Notably, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds, but against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets under management, this outflow appears limited. The positive net inflow was provided precisely by corporate buyers.
Strategy remains the key driver of demand. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Strategy's debt load is only about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. The company also retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance these obligations.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 have effectively offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital into AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from positive regulatory changes in the US, including the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures on Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal and K33's View
K33 analysts draw similar conclusions. They note that more than half of bitcoin's supply (over 10 million BTC) is currently at a loss — this figure has risen from 30% to 50% in a month. Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively; in 2017, it was 31 days later. The exception was the 2014 cycle, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, and the price fell another 46%.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has fallen to 8 ("extreme fear").
However, K33 warns that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. The main pressure factor is the massive outflow from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC, the largest figure in history. Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, controlling a record 79% of the circulating supply, which is seen as a sign of sustained long-term demand. According to K33, the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation and potentially claim the role of the cycle's bottom.
My analysis: Bernstein's scenario is certainly ambitious, but not without logic. The key point is the resilience of corporate demand, which offsets outflows from ETFs and miner sales. However, investors should remember that historical patterns do not guarantee repetition, and current macroeconomic uncertainty could introduce adjustments. The $60,000 area looks like an attractive entry zone, but the final bottom can only be confirmed by time and volume.