The current correction in the bitcoin market, which has been ongoing for about three quarters, has not led leading analysts to abandon their ambitious forecasts. The key target for the end of the year remains the same — $150,000 per coin. And although the drawdown from the October high was 54%, experts characterize it as "mild" compared to historical bear phases, which often lasted 12–15 months and led to crashes of 75–90%.
In my assessment, this dynamic indeed indicates the increased maturity of the crypto market. However, there is still no complete certainty that the downturn is over. Nevertheless, fundamental factors remain on the side of the bulls.
Capital Flows and Corporate Demand
One of the key drivers remains capital inflows. Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion. At the same time, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds, but against the backdrop of assets totaling $74 billion, this outflow appears limited. The positive net inflow was provided precisely by corporate buyers.
The main driver of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. Additionally, Strategy retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance these obligations.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 have effectively offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.
Regulatory Incentives and Macro Backdrop
Additional market support could come from changes in US regulation. Key factors include the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the real-world assets (RWA) market, whose volume has reached about $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at approximately 50%.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
Other analysts have also presented interesting data. Currently, more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — over the past month, the figure has risen from 30% to over 50%. Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively; in 2017, it was 31 days later. The exception was the 2014 cycle, when it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, and the price fell another 46% during that time.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to its 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. At the same time, the RSI has dropped to its lowest level since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
It is important to note that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. One factor of pressure is the massive outflow of capital from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC — the largest figure on record. However, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, which is seen as a sign of sustained long-term demand.
My expert opinion: Despite the ongoing uncertainty, the combination of corporate demand, regulatory incentives, and historical signals suggests that the $60,000 area could serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation. The current correction is not a crash, but rather an opportunity to enter the market with an eye on new all-time highs.