Leading analysts at Bernstein reaffirm their "ambitious" bitcoin forecast, maintaining a target of $150,000 by the end of this year. Experts characterize the current correction, which amounts to 54% from the October high, as "mild" by historical standards.
According to my analysis, the duration of the downward movement — about three quarters — is indeed noticeably shorter than typical bearish phases, which in the past stretched for 12-15 months and were accompanied by declines of 75-90%. This indicates increased market maturity and a change in its structure.
Fundamental Growth Drivers
The key driver supporting the optimistic scenario remains institutional capital flows. Since the start of the year, total inflows into corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have exceeded $10 billion. Notably, despite outflows from ETFs amounting to $5.5 billion, corporate buyers have fully compensated for this pressure. Against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets under management, the scale of outflows appears insignificant.
The main "bull" in the market remains Strategy. The company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden level is only 13% of its portfolio value, and its available liquidity is sufficient to service obligations for more than 17 months. At the same time, Strategy retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance dividends and share buybacks.
Regulatory Momentum and Market Signals
Additional market support could come from changes in US regulation. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%. In parallel, markets for stablecoins (GENIUS Act) and real-world assets (RWA) are developing, with the latter reaching a volume of $52 billion.
Analysts at K33 record a historic signal: more than 50% of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the last time this situation was observed was in the late stages of bearish phases. Historically, this has preceded the formation of a bottom within 13-31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final bottom.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. The fear and greed index at 8 ("extreme fear") and the RSI at its lowest since 2018 reinforce the signal of a potential reversal.
My expert assessment: despite the massive outflow from ETFs (85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders control a record 79% of the circulating supply. This indicates the preservation of structural demand, which could serve as support for bitcoin in the $60,000 area. However, the current cycle differs from previous ones, and investors should consider the possibility of a prolonged consolidation.