Major analytical institutions remain confident in bitcoin's long-term potential, despite the current correction that has already led to a 54% decline from October highs. In particular, the target of $150,000 by the end of 2026 remains in place, and I consider such a forecast quite justified, given the fundamental market drivers.
The current correction has lasted about three quarters, which is significantly shorter than historical bearish phases that typically stretched over 12–15 months with declines of 75–90%. This indicates increased maturity of the crypto market, although full confidence in the end of the downturn is still lacking.
Fundamental Support Factors
Capital flows remain one of the key drivers. Since the beginning of 2026, total inflows through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. Despite outflows from exchange-traded funds of $5.5 billion, relative to assets of $74 billion, this is a limited phenomenon. The main source of demand is Strategy, which has increased its reserves by 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) to 847,363 BTC since January. The company's debt burden is only 13% of its bitcoin portfolio value, and liquidity is sufficient for 17 months to cover interest payments and dividends.
Furthermore, Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, who reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the U.S., including the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of the year is estimated at about 50%.
Historical Signals Point to a Bottom
According to other analysts, more than half of bitcoin's supply is now at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50% over the past month. Historically, such values were only observed in the late stages of bearish phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. For example, in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017 — after 31 days.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). Long-term holders control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, indicating sustained demand. In this regard, the $60,000 area is seen as a benchmark for long-term accumulation.
Expert conclusion: In my view, the current correction is more of a healthy consolidation rather than the start of a deep bearish trend. The combination of institutional demand, regulatory progress, and historical patterns makes the $150,000 target not just ambitious but quite realistic. Investors should consider accumulation near current levels, especially given the record share of long-term holders.