Bernstein's analytical department maintains an "ambitious" target price for Bitcoin of $150,000 by the end of this year. Despite the first cryptocurrency's 54% decline from its October peak, experts describe the current correction as "mild" by historical standards.
The current decline phase has lasted about three quarters. For comparison, in previous bear cycles, drops from local highs ranged from 75–90% and stretched over 12–15 months. In my opinion, this dynamic indeed indicates increased market maturity, but it is still premature to declare the downturn fully over.
Fundamental Drivers Remain in Place
The key supporting factor is capital flows. Since the beginning of 2026, total inflows into Bitcoin through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to approximately $10 billion. Meanwhile, $5.5 billion has been withdrawn from exchange-traded funds. However, against the backdrop of institutional assets totaling $74 billion, such outflows appear limited. The main net inflow has been driven precisely by corporate buyers.
The demand locomotive remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired roughly 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Strategy's debt burden amounts to about 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. Additionally, the company retains the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to finance these obligations.
It is important to note that Strategy's purchases in 2026 have offset sales by public miners, some of which have reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.
Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the U.S.: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at roughly 50%.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
K33 specialists presented a similar conclusion based on another metric. Currently, more than half of Bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50%+ over the past month. Over 10 million BTC were last moved at prices above current levels.
Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and typically preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks: in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017, after 31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, with the price declining an additional 46%.
Additional confirmation comes from Bitcoin returning to its 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the Fear and Greed Index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
However, the current cycle may differ from previous ones. One pressure factor is the massive outflow from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew approximately 85,600 BTC — the largest figure in history. Yet long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share, which I view as a sign of sustained long-term demand.
K33 believes that the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation and may claim the role of the current cycle's bottom. For context, earlier an analyst from CryptoQuant suggested Bitcoin could fall below $58,000.
My comment: The consensus among leading analytical houses regarding the achievability of $150,000 by year-end looks convincing against the backdrop of stable corporate demand and historical patterns. However, investors should consider that the current cycle is marked by unprecedented ETF outflows, which could prolong the recovery process. In my view, the $60,000-$65,000 range represents a zone of heightened interest for strategic accumulation.