The digital asset market is experiencing a prolonged correction, but fundamental indicators point to the preservation of a long-term bullish trend. The current 54% decline from October highs is not a crash, but rather a "soft" drawdown within a maturing market. Unlike past cycles, where bear phases lasted 12–15 months with crashes of 75–90%, the current correction, lasting about three quarters, demonstrates the industry's increased resilience.
Key Growth Drivers: Institutional Demand and Regulation
Despite $5.5 billion in outflows from spot ETFs, total capital inflows into Bitcoin since the beginning of the year amount to about $10 billion. This imbalance is explained by aggressive purchases from corporate treasuries. Strategy leads here, having acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only 13% of its portfolio value, and its liquidity is sufficient to service obligations for more than 17 months. This suggests that corporate demand remains structural, not speculative.
Additional market support will come from regulatory changes. The advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures on Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the real-world assets (RWA) market to $52 billion — all of this forms the infrastructure for a new phase. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%, which could become a powerful catalyst.
Historical Bottom Signals: Are There Coincidences?
Analysis of on-chain metrics confirms that we are in the late stage of the bear phase. More than 50% of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss — a level that in previous cycles (2018, 2022) preceded the formation of a bottom within 13–23 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final low, but the market was much less mature then.
Technical indicators also point to an imminent reversal: Bitcoin has returned to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous bottom formations. The RSI has dropped to the lows of November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
It is important to note that the current cycle is unique: large-scale outflows from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks) are offset by record accumulation by long-term holders, who control 79% of the circulating supply. This indicates that retail investors are panicking, while "smart money" continues to build positions.
My conclusion: The target of $150,000 by the end of the year looks ambitious but not fantastical. The key risk is prolonged consolidation due to macroeconomic uncertainty. However, given institutional support and historical patterns, the current area around $60,000 may already be considered a zone for long-term accumulation.