My colleagues at Bernstein maintain an ambitious forecast for bitcoin, setting a target of $150,000 by the end of the year. The current correction, which amounts to 54% from the October peak, is characterized by them as "mild." This statement underscores confidence in the fundamental strength of the asset, despite volatility.
Experts note that the current downturn phase has lasted about three quarters. Historically, bear cycles have been longer — from 12 to 15 months — and were accompanied by declines of 75-90% from local highs. Such dynamics, in their view, indicate the maturity of the crypto market, although the full completion of the downturn remains in question.
Fundamental Growth Factors
The basis for the optimistic forecast is a range of fundamental factors. Capital flows remain favorable: since the beginning of 2026, total inflows through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. Despite outflows from exchange-traded funds of $5.5 billion, this figure is limited relative to assets of $74 billion. Corporate buyers are the key driver of demand.
Strategy continues to dominate: since January, the company has purchased approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt load is about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and liquidity is sufficient to service obligations for more than 17 months. Importantly, Strategy retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance dividends and share buybacks, adding flexibility.
Strategy's purchases offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the U.S., including the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
Analysts at K33 draw similar conclusions: more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50% over the month. Historically, such values were observed in the late stages of bear phases, preceding the formation of a bottom within several weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively; in 2017, it was 31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, and the price fell another 46%.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous lows. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). Despite record outflows from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, controlling about 79% of the circulating supply — an all-time high.
My expert opinion: The scenario in which bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of the year requires not only stabilization of the macroeconomic environment but also a clear regulatory breakthrough. However, current data on accumulation by long-term holders and corporate demand indicate that the bottom has likely already been formed. Investors should consider the $60,000 area as a zone for strategic accumulation, not panic.