Bernstein analysts maintain their "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin, asserting that the target of $150,000 by the end of the year is quite achievable. Even despite a 54% drawdown from October highs, experts call the current correction "mild" by historical standards. The current bear phase has lasted about three quarters, whereas in the past, major downturns stretched for 12-15 months with declines of 75-90%. This, in their view, indicates increased market maturity, although the full completion of the downturn remains in question.
Fundamental Support Factors
Bernstein highlights several key drivers that could bring bitcoin back to growth. First and foremost, this includes capital flows. Since the beginning of 2026, total inflows through corporate treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. Despite ETF outflows of $5.5 billion, against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets, this appears limited. The main source of demand remains Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only 13% of its portfolio value, and liquidity is sufficient for 17 months of servicing. Additionally, Strategy could sell up to $1.25 billion worth of bitcoin to finance dividends and share buybacks, adding flexibility.
Additional market support comes from changes in US regulation: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal: Is the Bottom Near?
K33 analysts also see signs of a bottom forming. Currently, more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50% in a month. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks (23 and 13 days in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, 31 days in 2017). The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom with an additional 46% decline.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to its 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous lows. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has fallen to 8 ("extreme fear"). However, experts warn that the current cycle may differ: massive outflows from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks — a record) create pressure. Nevertheless, long-term holders control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share — indicating sustained long-term demand.
My expert opinion: Bernstein's scenario looks optimistic but is not without foundation. The combination of institutional demand, regulatory shifts, and historical bottom signals creates prerequisites for a reversal. However, the key risk remains macroeconomic instability and a possible tightening of Fed monetary policy, which could delay reaching $150,000 until 2027.