The analytical consensus on SpaceX stock shows a record spread in target prices: from $131 to $800. The median forecast, based on estimates from 19 out of 23 leading experts, stands at around $250, implying a potential upside of over 56% from current levels.
Upper Bound: Bullish Scenario
The highest target of $800 was set by Brian Gesuale of Raymond James. He draws parallels between SpaceX and infrastructure giants like railroads and internet providers, highlighting the company's unique position in the space launch and communications market.
John Godin of Citi gave a "buy" recommendation at $200 but called it merely an intermediate step toward a long-term target of $900, which he links to the development of the Starship program. Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank and Doug Anmuth of J.P. Morgan also recommend "buy" with targets of $255 and $225, respectively. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley set a base case at $300, outlining a wide range: up to $600 in a bullish scenario and a drop to $75 in a bearish one.
Notably, 14 out of 19 forecasts are concentrated in the $200–250 range. This optimism is backed by strong institutional demand: BlackRock previously filed for $5 billion ahead of SpaceX's debut with a $2 trillion valuation.
Lower Bound: Bearish View
Julie Zhu of MoffettNathanson set the lowest target at $131, implying a potential decline of 18% from current levels. This is the only neutral forecast on Wall Street. Her team called the calculation of SpaceX's potential market at $30 trillion "absurd" and questioned Musk's plans to deploy 100 gigawatts of computing power in orbit by 2029.
"As of now, there is not a single convincing financial model that justifies a valuation of around $2 trillion. Ours certainly does not support such a value."
Zhu's team did not issue a sell recommendation but pointed to a long-term risk—potential regulatory reaction to SpaceX's dominance in the launch market. However, this risk may only materialize in a few years.
My expert view: The nearly $700 gap between the highest and lowest targets creates a critical situation for volatile SpaceX stock. The results of the next Starship test launch this month could be the catalyst that shows whose forecasts are closer to reality. Investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming weeks.