Wall Street's analytical community has published highly polarized forecasts for SpaceX shares following the stock's recent inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. Of the 23 analysts who participated in forming estimates after the IPO, 19 provided specific target prices. The range turned out to be record-wide: from $131 to $800 per share. The median value was around $250, implying a growth potential of more than 56% from the previous trading session's closing level.
Upper Bound: Betting on Infrastructure and Starship
The maximum target of $800 was set by Brian Gesuale of Raymond James, who compared SpaceX to infrastructure giants like railroads and the internet. This bold comparison underscores the belief that the space company is becoming a fundamental element of the global economy.
John Godin of Citi gave a "buy" recommendation at the current price of $200 but called it merely an intermediate step toward a long-term target of $900, which he links to the development of the Starship program. Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank and Doug Anmuth of J.P. Morgan also issued "buy" ratings with targets of $255 and $225, respectively. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley outlined a base scenario at $300 but described a wide range: from $600 under a bullish scenario to $75 under a bearish one.
Notably, 14 of the 19 forecasts were concentrated in the $200–250 range. This optimism is supported by strong institutional demand: BlackRock filed an application for $5 billion, and the company's debut valuation was $2 trillion.
Lower Bound: Skepticism and Risk Assessment
The only neutral forecast, indicating a possible decline of 18%, was presented by Julie Zhu of MoffettNathanson with a target of $131. Her team called the calculation of SpaceX's potential market at $30 trillion "absurd" and questioned Musk's plans to deploy 100 gigawatts of computing power in orbit by 2029. "At this point, there is no single convincing financial model that justifies a valuation of around $2 trillion," the analysts stated.
However, Zhu's team did not issue a sell recommendation. They believe investors are pricing into SpaceX's valuation the prospects of businesses that do not yet exist. They identified the main long-term risk as a possible regulatory reaction to SpaceX's dominance in the launch market, but this risk may only materialize in a few years.
The nearly $700 gap between the maximum and minimum target estimates creates a critical situation for volatile SpaceX shares. The results of the next Starship test launch this month may show whose forecasts are closer to reality. I believe the current consensus in the $200–250 range reflects a rational assessment of the company's existing businesses, but the potential of Starship and regulatory risks make any long-term forecasts highly speculative.