The stock market for SpaceX, which recently debuted on the exchange, is showing an incredible range of analyst estimates. After the shares were included in the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, 19 of the 23 leading Wall Street analysts published their first forecasts. The median target price was around $250, suggesting a growth potential of more than 56% from the previous trading session's closing level. However, the range of estimates turned out to be extremely wide: from $131 to $800.
Maximum Expectations and Bullish Scenario
The most optimistic forecast was presented by Brian Gesuale from Raymond James, setting a target of $800. He compares SpaceX to infrastructure giants such as railroads and the internet, emphasizing its unique position. John Godin from Citi gave a "buy" recommendation at $200 but called this mark merely a step toward a long-term target of $900, which he links to the development of the Starship program. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan set more conservative but still bullish targets of $255 and $225, respectively. Morgan Stanley's base scenario is $300, with a range from $75 (bearish) to $600 (bullish). Institutional demand, particularly BlackRock's $5 billion bid, confirms this optimism.
Lower Bound and Skepticism
The only neutral forecast, suggesting a possible decline of 18%, belongs to Julie Zhu from MoffettNathanson with a target of $131. Her team called the estimate of SpaceX's potential market at $30 trillion "absurd" and questioned Musk's plans to deploy 100 gigawatts of computing power in orbit by 2029. Analysts note that investors are pricing in prospects for businesses that do not yet exist, and a long-term threat could be regulatory reaction to SpaceX's dominance in the launch market, but this risk will only materialize in a few years.
Conclusions and Prospects
The nearly $700 gap between the maximum and minimum target prices creates an extremely volatile situation for SpaceX shares. The key catalyst that could determine whose forecast is closer to reality will be the upcoming test launch of Starship this month. In my view, such a wide range reflects fundamental uncertainty: the market is valuing not so much current financial performance as the potential for future technological breakthroughs, which always comes with high risk and reward.