After its long-awaited stock market debut, SpaceX shares have become the focus of intense attention from Wall Street's largest investment houses. The range of target prices published by 19 of the 23 analysts covering the space giant's IPO turned out to be extremely wide—from $131 to $800. The release of the reports coincided with the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, which occurred on Tuesday, July 7. The median target value was around $250, suggesting a growth potential of more than 56% from Monday's closing level.
Upper Bound: Betting on Starship and Infrastructure Monopoly
The maximum target of $800 was set by Brian Gesuale of Raymond James. In his research note, he compared SpaceX to infrastructure giants such as railroads and the internet, emphasizing its unique position in the space launch market. John Godin of Citi issued a "buy" recommendation at the current price of $200 but called this level merely an intermediate step on the path to a long-term target of $900, which he links to the successful development of the Starship program.
Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank and Doug Anmuth of J.P. Morgan gave similar "buy" recommendations with targets of $255 and $225, respectively. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley outlined a base scenario at $300, while defining a wide range: up to $600 in a bull case and a drop to $75 in a bear case. Fourteen of the 19 forecasts fell within the $200–250 range. This consensus optimism is backed by strong institutional demand—BlackRock filed an application for $5 billion before the debut with a valuation of $2 trillion last month.
Lower Bound: Skepticism and "Absurd" Valuation
The lowest target—$131—was set by Julie Zhu of MoffettNathanson. This is the only neutral forecast, indicating a possible decline of 18% from current levels. Her team called the calculation of SpaceX's potential market at $30 trillion "absurd" and questioned Elon Musk's plans to deploy 100 gigawatts of computing power in orbit by 2029. "At this point, there is no convincing financial model that justifies a valuation of around $2 trillion. Ours certainly does not support such a value," the analysts stated.
Zhu's team did not issue a sell recommendation but warned that a long-term threat could be a possible regulatory response to SpaceX's dominance in the launch market. However, this risk may only materialize in a few years. The nearly $700 gap between the maximum and minimum target estimates creates a critical situation for volatile SpaceX shares. The results of the next Starship test launch this month may show whose forecasts are closer to reality.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: Such a colossal spread in estimates—from $131 to $900—reflects not just uncertainty but a fundamental debate about the nature of SpaceX's business. Some see it as a mature infrastructure monopoly, while others view it as a speculative bubble based on promises of future technologies. Investors should prepare for extreme volatility: any success or failure of Starship could trigger movements of tens of percent in a single session.