The escalation in the Middle East has entered a new, dangerous phase. US President Donald Trump has officially declared the memorandum of understanding with Iran "no longer in effect." Markets reacted instantly and in divergent directions: Bitcoin fell below the $62,000 mark, while oil made a sharp surge, reaching $75 per barrel for the first time since June 22.
The collapse of diplomacy and a new wave of attacks
The memorandum was essentially a preliminary agreement of intent, lacking legal force. However, its annulment signaled a complete breakdown of diplomatic channels. Trump's statement came amid renewed military actions: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to previous US attacks. Washington, in turn, reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil sales, exacerbating the crisis in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Why did Bitcoin drop and oil surge?
This market reaction is a classic scenario for periods of geopolitical turbulence. Oil is rising due to panic expectations of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is behaving like a risky asset. Investors, fleeing uncertainty, are pulling capital out of volatile instruments, preferring safe-haven assets.
My analysis confirms: at this point, Bitcoin is not functioning as "digital gold" in conditions of military conflict. It correlates with stock indices, not with commodities. The daily candle closing below $62,000 opens the way to testing the $60,000 level. The market is entering a zone of high turbulence, where the key factor will not be technical analysis, but the development of the geopolitical situation.