The escalation in the Middle East is once again becoming the main driver of global markets. The US President's statement on the termination of the memorandum of understanding with Iran triggered a sharp redistribution of capital: Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $62,000 mark, while USOIL crude oil surged to $75 — for the first time since June 22.
A memorandum of understanding is a non-binding document that records the intentions of the parties before signing a full agreement. However, its annulment in a situation where the parties have already resumed airstrikes across the region effectively means the collapse of the diplomatic process. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck US targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Washington, in turn, reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports and attacked targets near the Strait of Hormuz.
Why did markets diverge in different directions?
The classic divergence between risky assets and commodities manifested itself fully. Oil soared amid panic fears of supply disruptions through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Within just ten minutes of the news breaking, USOIL quotes jumped by 3.2% — an impressive leap, considering that just a few days earlier prices had fallen below $67.50 on expectations of de-escalation.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, exhibited behavior typical of a risky asset during periods of geopolitical instability. Earlier in the session, BTC was trading above $64,000, but after the first reports of attacks, it began to decline steadily. The US President's statement acted as a catalyst for an accelerated drop: within minutes, the rate broke through the $62,000 level. Traders panicked and began withdrawing capital from volatile instruments, seeking refuge in safer assets.
Cryptalist analytical commentary: This situation once again confirms that Bitcoin has not yet become "digital gold" in the full sense of the word. During acute geopolitical tensions, it behaves like a high-risk asset, correlating with stock indices rather than safe-haven instruments. Until BTC closes the daily candle above $62,000, we may see a test of the $60,000 level. Oil, on the contrary, remains a classic beneficiary of Middle Eastern crises, and the current surge is just the beginning if the conflict enters a protracted phase.