Markets are in turmoil again. US President Donald Trump's statement on terminating the memorandum of understanding with Iran triggered a sharp reassessment of assets. Bitcoin plunged below the $62,000 mark, while oil made a rapid surge, reaching $75 per barrel for the first time since June 22.
The memorandum was essentially a preliminary agreement outlining the parties' intentions before concluding a full treaty. However, after the collapse of negotiations and a new wave of airstrikes across the region, Trump made it clear that the diplomatic window is closed. "It's over for me. I don't want to deal with them anymore," the American leader said, commenting on the failure of previous rounds of talks at the NATO summit in Ankara.
Why are bitcoin and oil moving in opposite directions?
We are witnessing a classic divergence in pricing logic. Oil is rising due to direct concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important transport hub. Attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as the reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian exports, are creating a real supply deficit in the physical market.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, continues to behave like a risky asset. During times of geopolitical stress, investors flee to safe-haven assets, and the leading cryptocurrency cannot yet compete with the dollar or gold in this capacity. The drop below $62,000 occurred literally within minutes of Trump's words being published, and now the market is frozen in anticipation: if the daily candle closes below this level, we could see a retest of the $60,000 zone.
My opinion: This reaction is not a coincidence but a pattern. Bitcoin is still perceived by major players as "digital gold" only in theory. In practice, during acute crises, it behaves like a high-risk instrument. As long as the geopolitical premium in oil continues to rise, pressure on BTC will persist. The key point is whether it can hold the $60,000 support, or if we will see a deeper correction.