The escalation in the Middle East has once again come under serious threat. US President Donald Trump stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran is "no longer in effect." Markets reacted instantly: Bitcoin crashed below $62,000, while oil surged to $75 per barrel—all within minutes of his statement being published.
What lies behind Trump's statement?
The memorandum of understanding is not a legally binding document, but rather a declaration of intent. However, its termination signifies a complete collapse of diplomatic efforts. Trump made it clear at the NATO summit in Ankara: after the failure of previous rounds of negotiations, he has no intention of returning to dialogue with Tehran. Against the backdrop of renewed airstrikes across the region, including attacks on US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, the fragile calm has finally shattered.
The US has already reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil sales in response to strikes on vessels in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Now, markets are pricing in a scenario of prolonged confrontation.
Why did Bitcoin fall while oil rose?
This is a classic example of asset divergence under geopolitical stress. Oil jumped to $75—its highest since June 22—due to fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Just a few days ago, prices were below $67.50 on expectations of de-escalation.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, moved in the opposite direction. Earlier in the session, the price had risen above $64,000, but after the initial attacks, global risk appetite began to wane. Trump's statement only accelerated the decline: within minutes, BTC dropped below $62,000. Traders started seeking safety, pulling capital out of risky instruments.
This dynamic repeats during periods of conflict: Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, falling alongside stocks, while oil rises due to supply concerns. It is not "digital gold"—at least, not yet.
My analysis: As long as geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary driver, Bitcoin will continue to correlate with traditional risk assets. For a sustained recovery in BTC, either a shift in its perception as a safe-haven asset or a reduction in tensions is needed. Neither appears on the horizon in the near term.