Hyperliquid (HYPE) is consolidating near the $71.82 mark, showing a daily gain of 4.4%. The third attempt to storm the all-time high of $76.70 is the market's focus. Since the start of the year, the asset has gained about 250%, starting from $20.50 in January.
The fundamental picture is contradictory. On one hand, record protocol revenues and capital inflows through spot ETFs are creating a powerful bullish momentum. On the other hand, the token unlock schedule and increasing regulatory pressure pose serious risks to the sustainability of the upward movement.
Record Revenues and Institutional Interest
On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative protocol revenue. A key support mechanism is the buyback fund, which directs about 99% of platform fees to purchase HYPE from the market. The unlock of 9.92 million tokens on July 6, equivalent to $645 million, was fully absorbed by the fund, which had funds 4.6 times greater than this volume.
Institutional interest is also growing. The launch of spot ETFs Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP in mid-May ensured a net inflow of over $170 million by early July. Grayscale filed an S-1 application with the SEC for its own product. The interaction between the buyback fund and ETF inflows creates powerful internal demand, capable of offsetting seller pressure.
Pressure from Unlocks and Regulators
Starting in 2027, on the sixth of each month, new tranches will be opened for early participants. Only 22% of the total limit of 1 billion tokens is in free circulation. The permanent threat of dilution is a serious restraining factor.
Regulatory pressure is intensifying. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added Hyperliquid to its list of high-risk companies. Regulators in the UK issued similar warnings. Reports of CME and ICE calling on the CFTC to verify the legality of listing the project's perpetual contracts led to an instant 6% drop in HYPE.
The macroeconomic backdrop is also far from ideal. In June, US spot bitcoin funds recorded a record outflow of $4.5 billion, shifting the market sentiment index into the zone of extreme fear. The scale of HYPE buybacks is tightly linked to trader activity—a prolonged correction across the entire industry will inevitably weaken the project's internal support.
Technical Analysis: Compression Before Breakout
On the daily chart, HYPE has been moving upward since January. After a correction from the all-time high in mid-June, the price dropped to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~$55.41). The next pullback was weaker and ended at the 0.236 level ($63.66). Each new decline is becoming shorter, indicating growing demand. Even during the deepest correction, user activity remained high.
On the 4-hour chart, a narrowing triangle is forming. The price has approached the upper boundary—around $72. The lower support runs along the 0.236 level ($63.66). The RSI is holding near the 60 mark, just below the confident bullish zone. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) shows extremely low values—historically, such volatility compression often precedes a strong move in one direction.
July Forecast
The key scenario is a breakout of the triangle to the upside. A 4-hour candle close above its boundary, followed by a daily candle close above $76.70, would open the path to updating highs. The height of the pattern indicates a potential move to $88—about 22% above the current level. Continued ETF inflows could strengthen this scenario.
The alternative scenario is a pullback to support. If the price fails to overcome the all-time high, the first target will be $63.66, then $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would indicate a deeper correction. The global uptrend will only be threatened if the price falls below $42—a level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge.
Analyst's Conclusion: Hyperliquid is at a critical point. Fundamental support is strong, but the technical picture requires immediate resolution. July will be the month that determines whether HYPE can establish itself in a new price range or return to testing supports. Traders should closely watch the price reaction to the $76.70 level—this is where the fate of the near-term movement will be decided.