Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has introduced a key metric to the market that he believes remains one of the most undervalued in the context of evaluating his company. This is the BTC Breakeven ARR — a breakeven annual return indicator that demonstrates the striking financial resilience of the model.
The essence of the calculations is extremely simple: the annual dividend obligations on preferred shares (STRK) are divided by the total value of the bitcoin reserves. Currently, annual payments amount to approximately $1.76 billion. Based on the current portfolio, Saylor claims that for these dividends to be covered indefinitely, bitcoin only needs to grow by 3.3% per year.
The Math Behind the Financial Cushion
As of today, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC, which, at the current price of around $63,600, is equivalent to approximately $53.8 billion. The company continues to increase its holdings: since May, when the report listed 818,334 BTC, the portfolio has grown by more than 25,000 coins, coinciding with a market correction — a classic aggressive approach by Saylor.
In a recent post on X, Saylor himself emphasized: "If bitcoin grows faster than 3.3% per year, the capital gains will allow Strategy to pay dividends indefinitely." This model is also supported by cash on the balance sheet: $2.55 billion in cash covers approximately 17 months of payments even with zero BTC growth. Considering the entire reserve, according to the company's dashboard, Strategy can service its obligations for 31 years.
It is important to note that this is not just theory. The company has already paid 23 consecutive quarterly dividends on preferred shares, and the total amount of payments since the beginning of 2025 has exceeded $693 million.
The Flip Side: Criticism and Risks
However, such an elegant mathematical model works under ideal conditions. Critics rightly point out that the volume of obligations is not static — it is growing. For comparison: in the first quarter of 2026, payments on preferred shares reached $229.5 million, whereas a year earlier this amount was only $10.6 million. Meanwhile, the total volume of preferred shares has exceeded $13.5 billion.
JPMorgan analysts have already warned that Strategy's current policy of selling bitcoin to finance dividends could trigger market pressure of up to $1.25 billion. And there are already signals: on July 1, on-chain data recorded the sale of 491 BTC, and it later emerged that the actual transaction volume was 7 times larger.
The yield on the STRC token looks attractive — 11.5% per annum in May, but the market price of the instrument is still below the target mark of $100. Investors are evidently pricing in risks, despite the low breakeven threshold.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The BTC Breakeven ARR indicator is indeed an elegant way to demonstrate the model's resilience, but it does not account for the main risk: the growth of debt burden. If Saylor continues to aggressively expand the portfolio through the issuance of new preferred shares, the breakeven threshold of 3.3% could quickly turn into 5-7%. The real test of the model will come when the market enters a prolonged phase of consolidation or a bearish trend.