Hyperliquid (HYPE) is trading near the $71.82 mark, showing a daily increase of 4.4%. The bulls' third attempt to break the all-time high of $76.70 looks increasingly confident. Since the beginning of the year, the token has gained about 250%, starting in January from around ~$20.50.
Record protocol revenues and capital inflows through spot ETFs have been key drivers of the current upward momentum. However, monthly token unlocks and increased regulatory scrutiny pose serious risks to the sustainability of this growth.
Fundamental Factors: Revenues and ETFs
On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative protocol revenue. The key price support mechanism is the buyback fund, which directs about 99% of trading fees to purchase HYPE from the market. The unlock of 9.92 million HYPE on July 6 (equivalent to ~$645 million) was fully absorbed by this fund, which at that time held funds 4.6 times greater than the required volume.
Institutional interest is also growing. In mid-May, the first spot ETFs on HYPE launched in the US — Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP. The total net inflow into these funds exceeded $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 application with the SEC.
Bearish Signals: Unlocks and Regulators
Starting in 2027, on the 6th of each month, access to new tranches of HYPE for early project participants will open. Currently, only 22% of the total supply limit of 1 billion tokens is in free circulation. The permanent threat of dilution for holders remains a serious restraining factor.
Regulatory pressure is also intensifying. At the end of June, the MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) added Hyperliquid to its list of companies with increased risk for retail investors. Similar warnings were issued by UK authorities. Furthermore, exchanges CME and ICE called on the US CFTC to review the legality of listing the project's perpetual contracts. The market reaction was immediate — the HYPE rate fell by 6%.
The macroeconomic environment is also not favoring the bulls. In June, US spot bitcoin funds recorded a record outflow of $4.5 billion, shifting the market sentiment index into the zone of extreme fear. The scale of HYPE token buybacks is tightly linked to trader activity, and in the event of a prolonged correction across the entire industry, the project's internal support will inevitably weaken.
Technical Analysis: Volatility Squeeze
On the daily chart, HYPE has been moving upward since January. After a correction in mid-June, the price dropped to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~$55.41), and then to 0.236 ($63.66). Each new decline became shorter, indicating rising demand.
On the 4-hour chart, a contracting triangle is forming. HYPE is now approaching the upper boundary of the pattern (~$72). The RSI is holding near the 60 mark, and the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) shows extremely low values. Historically, such volatility compression often precedes a strong move in one direction.
July Forecast
If a close above the triangle boundary occurs on the 4-hour chart, followed by a daily candle closing above $76.70, the price will enter a phase of updating highs. The height of the pattern indicates a potential move towards $88 — approximately 22% above the current level.
In case of failure, the first target will be $63.66, then $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would suggest a deeper correction. The global uptrend will only be threatened if the price falls below $42 — the level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge.
Expert Opinion: The situation in July will be determined by whether the volatility squeeze resolves with a breakout to new levels or a pullback to another support test. Given the strong fundamental drivers and simultaneous pressure from unlocks and regulators, the most likely scenario is consolidation in the $63–77 range, followed by an upward breakout if positive institutional demand persists.