Hyperliquid (HYPE) is consolidating near the $71.82 mark, showing a daily increase of 4.4%. The token is making its third attempt to break the all-time high of $76.70. Since the beginning of the year, the asset has gained about 250%, starting in January at around $20.50.
Record protocol revenue and a steady influx of capital through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are creating strong bullish momentum. However, monthly token unlocks and increasing regulatory scrutiny give sellers strong arguments for expecting a correction.
Fundamental Factors: Records and Risks
On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative protocol revenue, according to DeFiLlama data. Approximately 99% of trading fees on the platform are directed towards buying back HYPE through a dedicated support fund. On July 6, a unlock of 9.92 million HYPE (~$645 million at the time) occurred, but according to available data, the buyback fund held 4.6 times more funds, offsetting the selling pressure.
Institutional investors are actively expanding their presence. In mid-May, the first spot ETFs for HYPE launched in the US — Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP. Total net inflows into the funds exceeded $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 application with the SEC.
On the other hand, starting in 2027, on the 6th of each month, access to new HYPE tranches will open for early participants. Currently, only 22% of the total limit of 1 billion tokens is in free circulation. The permanent threat of dilution for holders is a significant restraining factor. Additionally, at the end of June, the MAS added Hyperliquid to its list of high-risk companies, with similar warnings issued by UK regulators. There were also reports of CME and ICE calling on the CFTC to review the legality of the project's perpetual contract listings. This triggered an immediate 6% drop in the HYPE price.
Technical Analysis: Volatility Squeeze
On the daily chart, HYPE has been moving upward since January. After the correction from the all-time high, the price dropped to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~$55.41). The subsequent pullback was weaker and ended at the 0.236 level ($63.66). Each new decline is becoming shorter, indicating rising demand. Even during the deepest correction, user activity remained high.
On the 4-hour chart, after the peak on June 16, the price has been moving within a narrowing triangle. HYPE is now approaching the upper boundary of the formation (~$72). The RSI is holding near the 60 mark, and the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) indicates extremely low values. Historically, such volatility compression often precedes a strong move in one direction.
Forecast for July 2026
Bullish Scenario: If a close above the triangle boundary occurs on the 4-hour chart, followed by a daily candle closing above $76.70, the price will enter a phase of updating highs. The potential target is $88 (approximately 22% above the current level). Continued ETF inflows could strengthen this scenario.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break the all-time high, the first target will be $63.66, followed by $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would signal a deeper correction. The global uptrend would only be threatened if the price falls below $42 — the level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge.
My Professional Opinion: Hyperliquid is in a unique situation, combining record fundamental support with serious regulatory and structural risks. I assess the probability of breaking $76.70 in the coming days as 60/40 in favor of the bulls. However, any negative news from Singapore or the US could instantly reverse the sentiment. Investors should closely monitor ETF flow dynamics as a key indicator of institutional confidence.