Hyperliquid (HYPE) is demonstrating a confident upward trend, trading near the $71.82 mark with a daily gain of 4.4%. Since the beginning of the year, the token has gained about 250%, starting from the $20.50 level. Bulls are now making a third attempt to storm the all-time high of $76.70.
Record Protocol Revenues and Institutional Inflows
The key driver of growth is the project's fundamental strength. On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative protocol revenue, according to DeFiLlama data. The token buyback mechanism, which directs about 99% of platform fees to purchase HYPE from the market, creates powerful internal price pressure. The unlocking of 9.92 million HYPE on July 6 (equivalent to approximately $645 million at the time) was fully absorbed by the support fund, which had funds 4.6 times larger.
Institutional interest is also gaining momentum. Since mid-May, the first spot ETFs on HYPE were launched in the US — Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP. The total net inflow into these funds exceeded $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 application with the SEC. This is generating sustained demand from large capital.
Pressure Factors: Unlocks and Regulatory Risks
However, not everything is so clear-cut. Starting in 2027, monthly token unlocks for early project participants will exert constant pressure on prices. Currently, only 22% of the total limit of 1 billion tokens is in free circulation. The permanent threat of dilution for holders remains a significant restraining factor.
Furthermore, regulatory pressure is intensifying. At the end of June, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added Hyperliquid to its list of companies with increased risk for retail investors. Similar warnings were issued by UK authorities. Reports of CME and ICE calls for the US CFTC to review the legality of the project's perpetual contract listings led to an instant 6% drop in the HYPE rate. The overall macroeconomic environment is also not on the bulls' side: in June, US spot bitcoin funds recorded a record outflow of $4.5 billion, shifting the market sentiment index into the extreme fear zone.
Technical Analysis: Volatility Squeeze Foreshadows Strong Movement
On the daily chart, HYPE has been moving in an uptrend since January. After a correction from the all-time high in mid-June, the price dropped to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~$55.41), and then the pullback became shorter — to 0.236 ($63.66). Each new decline became less deep, indicating growing demand. The daily RSI moved to 60 but maintained a bullish structure.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the formation of a symmetrical triangle is visible. The price has closely approached the upper boundary of the pattern (~$72). The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) shows extremely low values. Historically, such a volatility squeeze often precedes a strong move in one direction.
July Forecast: Two Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: If a close above the triangle boundary occurs on the 4-hour chart, followed by a daily candle closing above $76.70, the price will enter a phase of updating highs. The height of the pattern indicates a potential move to $88 — approximately 22% above the current level. Continued ETF inflows could strengthen this scenario.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to overcome the all-time high, the first target will be $63.66, followed by $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would suggest a deeper correction. The global uptrend will only be threatened if the price falls below $42 — the level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge.
My Expert Opinion: Hyperliquid is at a unique bifurcation point. On one hand, there is a powerful internal buyback mechanism and growing institutional interest. On the other, significant future unlocks and regulatory risks. July will be decisive: either we will see a confident breakout and a move to $88, or another test of support in the $63-55 range. Investors should closely monitor trading volume and RSI behavior on the daily chart.