Michael Saylor, founder and visionary of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has introduced a critically important yet, by his own admission, undervalued metric to the market — the BTC Breakeven ARR. This refers to the annual breakeven point at which the company's capital appreciation fully covers its dividend obligations on preferred shares.
The figure cited by Saylor is striking in its simplicity: Bitcoin only needs to grow by 3.3% annually for Strategy to perpetually service its dividend obligations. The calculation of this ratio is elementary: the annual dividend amount is divided by the total value of the cryptocurrency reserves. Currently, annual payments amount to approximately $1.76 billion.
Anatomy of Resilience: Reserves and Real Numbers
As of today, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC, which at the current price of around $63,603 is equivalent to approximately $53.8 billion. Since the May report, the company has increased its portfolio by more than 25,000 coins, actively utilizing market corrections. Saylor emphasizes that even with zero growth in BTC, the reserves combined with $2.55 billion in cash allow the company to pay dividends for 31 years. The cash "cushion" alone covers 17 months of payments.
It is important to note that this is not just theory. Strategy has already paid 23 consecutive quarterly distributions on its preferred shares. Since the beginning of 2025 alone, the volume of payments has exceeded $693 million.
Critical Perspective: Risks and Market Realities
Despite the elegance of the model, it is built on ideal assumptions. The key risk is the uncontrolled growth of liabilities. In the first quarter of 2026, the volume of dividends on preferred shares reached $229.5 million, whereas a year earlier this amount was only $10.6 million. The total volume of preferred shares has exceeded $13.5 billion.
Analysts at JPMorgan have already warned that Strategy's current policy of selling Bitcoin to cover obligations could create market pressure of up to $1.25 billion. On-chain data confirms: on July 1, the company sold 491 BTC, and the actual transaction volume turned out to be 7 times larger than initial estimates.
My expert opinion: The BTC Breakeven ARR metric is a powerful tool for understanding the sustainability of Saylor's business model, but it does not account for market volatility and the exponential growth of liabilities. Strategy's real stress test will not occur in ideal mathematical models, but in moments when Bitcoin falls and the dividend burden rises. As long as the market values the STRC token below the target of $100, pricing in these risks, investors are voting with their feet.